The 1.5°C temperature breach, what does it mean?

Cliff Chiduku-Herald Correspondent

Numbers are telling the same story: 2024 was Earth’s hottest year on record, knocking the previous record holder — 2023 — out of the top spot.

This means the world has just crossed the threshold for the first time in recorded history; global temperature has surpassed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

According to international agencies, global surface temperatures reached an unprecedented 1.6 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels last year. 

This breach of the 1.5 degrees’ Celsius target set by the 2015 Paris Agreement signals a stark reality — climate change is progressing faster than anticipated.

The breach is a reminder that the consequences of our reliance on fossil fuels and unsustainable practices are no longer in the distant future — they are manifesting now.

This is a wake-up call for urgent action to mitigate the devastating consequences of global warming.

The 1.5 degrees Celsius target was seen as the best-case scenario to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. If the global average temperature increase remained below this threshold, it was hoped that the worst effects such as droughts, heatwaves, rising sea levels and extreme weather events — could be mitigated. Now that this threshold has been breached, we are facing a future where the impacts of climate change will be even more severe and widespread.

The implications of this temperature breach are enormous. It represents a tipping point, indicating that the Earth’s climate system is undergoing rapid and potentially irreversible changes.

One of the key reasons for this breach is the continued rise in greenhouse gas emissions, particularly carbon dioxide, which traps heat in the atmosphere.

In 2024, emissions hit new highs, largely driven by industrial activity, deforestation and the burning of fossil fuels. These emissions have been building up for decades, and the world is now facing the harsh reality of what happens when we exceed the limits of what the earth’s ecosystems can tolerate.

The warming of the planet is already being felt across various regions. In some parts of the world, it is having devastating effects on agriculture, water resources, human health and ecosystems. For example, in regions like sub-Saharan Africa, which are highly vulnerable to climate change, the impacts of rising temperatures are being acutely felt.

One such example is Zimbabwe, a country that has been experiencing challenges with increasingly erratic weather patterns and persistent droughts, exacerbating food insecurity and economic instability.

The Government introduced the Pfumvudza/Intwasa programme to climate proof agriculture and ensure smallholder farmers are food secure. 

Africa is one of the continents most affected by the consequences of climate change.

Despite contributing little to global greenhouse gas emissions, it bears the brunt of the climate crisis. With agriculture being a central part of many African economies, the changing climate is already taking a heavy toll on food production. Prolonged droughts, extreme temperatures, and unpredictable rainfall patterns are eroding the agricultural foundation of several African countries.

In Zimbabwe, one of the countries hit by climate change in Southern Africa, farmers have been particularly affected by increasingly erratic rainfall and prolonged periods of drought. Zimbabwe’s agriculture sector heavily reliant on maize, tobacco, and other staple crops has been affected by the change in weather patterns. In addition to the droughts, Zimbabwe has also experienced devastating floods. 

For example, in 2019, Cyclone Idai triggered floods in eastern Zimbabwe, displacing thousands and wiping out families and livelihoods. This dual threat of drought and flooding has created a cycle of climate-induced hardships, and also affecting food production.

The rise in temperatures is affecting water supply in most urban centres and power generation in Zimbabwe. As rainfall is becoming more unpredictable and droughts lengthening, water scarcity is becoming a growing concern. Access to clean water is vital for both human survival and agricultural productivity, and climate change is threatening to exacerbate water shortages in already vulnerable regions.

The breach of the 1.5 degrees’ Celsius threshold serves as a clarion call for action at both the local and global level.

The Paris Agreement, signed in 2015, set the goal of limiting global warming to well below 2 degrees’ Celsius, with efforts to limit it to 1.5 degrees’ Celsius.

However, with emissions on the rise, the world has yet to meet its climate goals. The record-breaking heat of 2024 highlights the consequences of inaction and the need for more aggressive efforts to curb emissions and transition to renewable energy sources.

The failure to curb emissions is primarily driven by the continued dependence on carbon-emitting fuels, particularly coal, oil and natural gas. Despite the progress made in renewable energy technologies, many countries are taking long to migrate to clean energy, opting instead to prioritise economic growth over environmental sustainability.

This has led to the acceleration of global warming, pushing the planet towards a future of more frequent and intense climate disasters.

All hope is not lost. The situation demands a complete overhaul of global policies, including stronger international cooperation, immediate investment in green technologies and a commitment to reducing emissions across all sectors.

At a global level, governments must enforce stricter regulations to hold organisations accountable for their contributions to climate change. Moreover, developed countries, which are historically responsible for most emissions, must take the lead in supporting the developing world in its efforts to adapt to climate change.

As climate change accelerates, innovation and technological advancements in both mitigating its impacts and helping vulnerable communities adapt to new realities.

Renewable energy technologies along with energy storage solutions, offer promising and sustainable pathways for reducing emissions and transitioning away from fossil fuels. Moreover, carbon capture and storage technologies are emerging as potential tools to help reduce the amount of carbon in the atmosphere.

In Africa, including Zimbabwe, there is a growing potential for solar energy, which can help alleviate both energy poverty and reliance on fossil fuels.

Solar-powered irrigation systems are helping farmers adapt to water scarcity and ensure food production in arid regions. Additionally, initiatives to increase climate resilience through sustainable agriculture practices and water management techniques are crucial for addressing the immediate challenges faced in Africa.

However, these technologies will require investment and support from both local governments and international partners. 

The breach is also a reminder that the window for mitigating the worst effects of climate change is rapidly closing. The global community must recognise the urgency of the situation and take decisive action to limit further warming.

For countries where the impacts of climate change are visible, this breach represents not only an environmental crisis but also an economic and social one.

If responsible authorities are to avoid even more severe consequences, it is essential that we take bold steps towards reducing emissions, investing in clean technologies and supporting vulnerable communities in adapting to the new climate reality. Only then can we hope to create a sustainable future for all. Food for thought!

Cliff Chiduku is a communications, public policy and governance expert with interests in climate and environmental issues. He writes in his personal capacity. Feedback: [email protected] or Call/App +263775716517.