The ceasefire activating Israel’s nightmare

Gibson Nyikadzino, Correspondent
IN a liberation conflict, the underdog can prevail against formidable military might. One interesting nature of these liberation conflicts is the ability of resistance movements to fight since what is important is their determination to fight.

After 15 months of indiscriminately bombing civilian infrastructure in Gaza using sophisticated and modern military equipment, Israel failed its primary objective goal: to defeat the Hamas resistance fighters. Hamas is fighting a liberation war and liberation wars are a marathon.

A liberation war is a conflict of will. Even when people or fighters lose their leaders, as is the case of Ismail Haniyeh and Yahya Sinwar for Hamas, the people will continue to fight. One of the mistakes Israel made was to measure their military “success” by counting the number of leaders they killed. That is a futile quantitative indicator.

Facing the threat of extermination, being banished to the wilderness, displacement and the use of hunger and starvation as war tactics, Palestinians remain in their land, standing from and on top of the rubble.

On January 14, 2025, former US Secretary of State later realised that both his country and Israel under-estimated Hamas when he said: “We have long made the point to the Israeli government that Hamas cannot be defeated by a military campaign alone, without a clear alternative. A post-conflict plan and a credible political horizon for Palestinians, Hamas or something just as abhorrent and dangerous will grow back.”

This represents the most significant failure of Israel’s ground invasion and Israelis are starting to recognise that the conflict is concluding without Israel achieving any of its principal objectives.
Amir Avivi, a retired Israeli army officer recently told the Wall Street Journal that “we are in a situation where the pace at which Hamas is rebuilding itself is higher than the pace that the Israeli army is eradicating them”.

What is certain is that Palestinians will not stop fighting for their independence and sovereignty until Israel starts to negotiate and regard them on equal terms. If that does not happen, the Israel-Hamas ceasefire that was recently brokered by Egypt and Qatar represents the beginning of Israel’s scary nightmares. Liberation struggles are a marathon. Hope matters if one is to stay the course in that marathon.

Firstly, the ceasefire deal that is being implemented is the same that former US President Joe Biden, said he initiated six months ago. Back then, Hamas accepted the deal and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu blocked it, leading to an offensive that killed at least 10 000 Palestinians during that period.

Secondly, Netanyahu agreed to the same deal that Biden had proposed after significant political pressure was put on him by US President, Donald Trump. It means Netanyahu knew that somehow Trump would want to uphold international law, give a reprieve that will see Palestinians get their rights, stop (temporarily) apartheid and the occupation.

What is certain is that the beginning of the Israeli nightmare will not only be premised on the idea that Hamas or Palestinians will launch another resistance offensive, but on how Israel will attempt to convince the Global South or the world that what it committed in Gaza was not a genocide.

In the West, polls conducted during the Israeli offensive on civilians in Gaza revealed that 42 percent believe Israel was committing genocide, while 66 percent sympathise with the Palestinian people as a whole. Nearly two thirds of the western population feel for the Palestinians, and based on how their governments harassed and arrested or detained pro-Palestinian protests across Europe, a great awakening happened that Israel will not dim for generations to come.

Despite attempts to cut Palestinians from the rest of the world, there emerged new voices that broke tradition. For instance, on 28 May 2024, Norway, Ireland and Spain recognised Palestinian statehood.
Ireland and Spain are European Union (EU) members, a bloc that did not support Israeli disproportionate use of force on civilians, but also turned a blind eye to the killing of women and children. On the other hand, Slovenia also recognised the right of Palestinian statehood in an overwhelming vote on 4 June last year.

The formalisation and materialisation of the ceasefire deal also comes at a time pro-Palestinian student encampments that occurred in the US last year called on colleges and universities to sever ties with Israel and divest from apartheid.

It also comes when the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants on 21 November for Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant, the former Minister of Defence. The resentment that happens when Africans or leaders from Balkan states get ICC arrest warrants is likely what other global citizens feel about the duo.

Additionally, the case South Africa brought against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in January last year, with submissions pointing that Israel was committing genocide in Gaza raised a new feeling of worthy for the Global South.

At no point in historical and contemporary times was it ever thought that an African nation would raise high the flag of morality in support of humanity, yet it happened. From that, 14 countries expressed their interest to join South Africa in that case.

What Israel is facing is huge!

Palestinians have shown the world that they are strong enough to withstand a full-scale confrontation without surrendering their position and territory. To them, there will be no other Nakba that will happen as they withstood what Israel hurled at them.

To some Israelis, this has already started to sink in their heads, though to some, it will take some time. Even if Israel takes over the entire Middle East and every other state gives up its territory, against Palestinians the Israelis will not win.
Gaza will end up being the main battleground that this protracted liberation conflict will playout.